CLIMAte Change and Health Emergency CARE (clima-care)

Summary

The project studies how heat stress and worsening air quality, both amplified by climate change, affect health and emergency medical services, and how risks may change over time. Led by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) with partners in Italy and Switzerland, it focuses on Lombardy (Italy), where heat extremes and air pollution jointly contribute to the health burden. We combine Earth Observation derived datasets with anonymised ambulance call records to map risk and identify vulnerable areas and groups. Using climate scenarios, CLIMA-CARE projects future demand and builds a digital twin of the emergency system to test how ambulance siting and fleet size should adapt. The work addresses IPCC knowledge gaps and supports adaptation consistent with the Paris Agreement and the Global Goal on Adaptation.

Project background

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a major threat to human health and to the functioning of health systems. The IPCC highlights that rising temperatures and changing patterns of climate hazards can increase morbidity and premature mortality, particularly in densely populated and ageing regions. In parallel, climate change can exacerbate air quality risks through multiple mechanisms. Higher temperatures and stronger solar radiation favour photochemical processes leading to increased surface ozone.

Changes in precipitation and longer dry periods can reduce the natural removal of pollutants by wet deposition and increase the resuspension of dust and particulate matter. Drought conditions can also contribute to persistent pollution episodes and compound events, with particularly severe impacts in regions with stagnant atmospheric conditions such as the Po Valley in Northern Italy.

From a policy perspective, these dynamics create a concrete challenge for climate adaptation in the health sector. Decision makers need spatially explicit evidence that connects climate driven hazards and environmental stressors to health system impacts. Yet, many existing assessments remain focused on population level outcomes and do not translate risks into operational indicators relevant for emergency medical services, such as shifts in emergency call demand, response performance, and resource allocation needs.

This reflects a key knowledge gap: the limited integration of consistent climate data records, exposure and vulnerability information, and health system dynamics at regional scale. Earth Observation provides long term, spatially comprehensive datasets that can strengthen exposure assessment and enable traceable monitoring of climate related stressors, but these data are still underused in applied health system planning.

Project aims and objectives

The overall aim of climacare is to improve the understanding of how climate change related stressors affect human health and emergency medical services, and to support adaptation planning in the health sector using Earth Observation data.

The project focuses on heat stress and air quality deterioration as two major drivers of climate related health impacts. These stressors can increase the number and spatial concentration of emergency medical calls, putting pressure on emergency response systems. The project aims to translate climate and environmental information into indicators that are directly relevant for health system planning and decision making.

• Objective 1 Assess current health risks associated with heat and air quality

Earth Observations will be combined with climate and environmental data and anonymised emergency medical call records. This integration allows the identification of spatial and temporal patterns of risk and helps to understand how exposure and vulnerability vary across the region.

• Objective 2 Risk evaluation under future climate conditions

We will evaluate how these risks may change under future climate conditions. Climacare uses climate change scenarios and model-based projections to estimate future patterns of heat and air quality related stress, and to analyse how these changes may affect emergency medical service demand.

• Objective 3 Digital twin of the emergency medical system (Lombardy)

A digital twin of the emergency medical system of the investigated region, Lombardy will be developed. This digital representation is used to simulate different future scenarios and to test how changes in ambulance numbers, locations, and response strategies could improve system performance under increasing climate related pressures.

The project aims to demonstrate how Earth Observation data from the ESA Climate Change Initiative, together with complementary remote sensing and model-based datasets, can support climate adaptation in the health sector. By developing a climate and health adaptation roadmap, and by addressing key knowledge gaps identified by the IPCC while aligning with international climate adaptation goals, climacare provides a transferable framework for strengthening the resilience of health systems to climate change.